Stock Market Crises

by Ted Toal on July 15, 2010

It’s been said that we can count on death and taxes. We should also add “market crises” to the list.

It seems like the stock market is always either in a crisis, recovering from a crisis, or anticipating the next crisis. Indeed, we’ve experienced numerous “crises” over the past four decades including the following: [click to continue…]

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Market Volatility in Perspective

by Ted Toal on June 23, 2010

The US stock market has taken investors on a bumpy ride in recent years.

Market volatility has tested investor discipline and prompted some people to question their commitment to equities. While no one knows the future, looking at the past may help you gain a better view of long-term market performance and put the recent market volatility in perspective. [click to continue…]

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Proponents of active investment management believe that skilled managers can outperform the financial markets through security selection, market timing, and other efforts based on prediction.

While the promise of above-market returns is alluring, investors must face the reality that as a group, US-based active investment managers do not consistently deliver on this promise, according to research provided by Standard & Poor’s . [click to continue…]

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Human Emotions and Successful Investing

by Ted Toal on March 18, 2010

Human emotion is an important factor in successful investing.

Would it surprise you to know that the worst stocks during the bear market that ran from October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009 turned out to be–by far–the best performing stocks over the next 12 months? [click to continue…]

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The Resilient Investor: Consumer Sentiment

by Ted Toal on February 17, 2010

The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary index for February that was reported last week declined slightly from the late January number and it was lower than expected as consumers continued to fret over unemployment. The index is now down 24% from January 2007, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

Ironically, when consumers are glum, that could be good news for the financial markets. [click to continue…]

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Best Mutual Fund of the Decade: CGM Focus

by Ted Toal on February 3, 2010

The financial media is pleased to report that the best performing mutual fund of the decade is Ken Heebner’s CGM Focus fund.

Through the end of January, 2010, the mutual fund annualized 18.03%, easily outpacing the S&P 500’s annualized return of -0.55%.

Did you miss these returns? Not to worry, because the typical investor in the CGM Focus mutual fund also missed out on the returns. Unfortunately, there is a big difference between investment returns and investor returns. [click to continue…]

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Ten Stock Investments for the Next Decade

by Ted Toal on January 27, 2010

With the dawn of a new decade arrives the financial media’s recommended investments.

Articles with attention grabbing titles such as “10 Stock Investments for the Next Ten Years” entice readers with promises of market beating returns.

But should you follow media’s investment recommendations? Consider the following articles published ten years ago. [click to continue…]

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There is a difference between luck and skill and knowing when you are just lucky and when you are successful due to skill is of paramount importance as an investor.

For instance, let’s say you correctly called the flip of a coin five times in a row. What are the odds that you will correctly call the next flip? [click to continue…]

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The Resilient Investor: Predicting the Economy

by Ted Toal on October 2, 2009

One outcome of the financial crisis is we have to “live with messiness.”

Instead of a neat and tidy explanation for everything that happens in the markets, humans are sometimes irrational and, as emotional creatures, we occasionally let fear and greed cloud our financial decisions.

After witnessing the current financial crisis, the tech stock bubble and burst from a decade ago, and numerous other financial storms over the past 20 years, it seems that when it comes to money, humans continue to make mistakes with their money and investments. [click to continue…]

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The Resilient Investor: Ivy League Endowment Funds

by Ted Toal on September 18, 2009

Rarely do you see a headline in a mainstream newspaper containing the three words, “Yale,” “Harvard,” and “Losers,” but that’s exactly what happened last week in The Wall Street Journal.

The Journal certainly wasn’t talking about the Universities’ academic prowess or even their athletic exploits; rather, it was the disappointing performance of their once invincible endowment funds. [click to continue…]

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